Superforecasting

Want to make better predictions about your business, career, and even the world? Learn the secrets of "superforecasters"—ordinary people with an extraordinary ability to predict the future. This book summary reveals their proven methods for seeing what's coming with stunning accuracy. Discover the specific, trainable habits of mind that separate these elite forecasters from the rest of us. You'll learn how to think in probabilities, update your beliefs based on new evidence, and overcome common cognitive biases to sharpen your own foresight and make smarter decisions.

Philip Tetlock is a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, renowned for his decades-long research project on expert political judgment, the largest of its kind. His groundbreaking work, which identified the traits of elite forecasters, forms the scientific backbone of this book. Journalist Dan Gardner collaborated with Tetlock to translate these complex findings into an accessible guide, making the art and science of superior prediction available to everyone seeking to improve their decision-making and foresight.