Expert Political Judgment

Think you can predict the future? This groundbreaking twenty-year study reveals why the forecasts of political experts are often no better than random chance. Discover the simple thinking habits that separate the truly insightful from the merely confident and learn how to dramatically improve your own judgment. You'll go inside the minds of "foxes" and "hedgehogs"—two distinct types of thinkers—to see what makes one consistently outperform the other. By understanding Philip Tetlock's revolutionary research, you'll gain a powerful toolkit for making better predictions in your own life, from business to personal decisions.

Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, holding appointments in the Wharton School, the psychology department, and the political science department. For decades, he has studied the art and science of prediction, systematically tracking the forecasts of experts to understand why some are consistently better than others. His groundbreaking research, co-led with his wife Barbara Mellers, forms the basis of the Good Judgment Project, a revolutionary tournament designed to identify and cultivate "superforecasters."